Hotline oddly frames Reid's reelection as a battle of opposition research:

Reid faces dismal approval ratings -- the latest survey, conducted by the independent Research 2000 for the Progressive Change Campaign Cmte, showed just 35% of Nevadans have a favorable opinion of the senior senator, while 54% see him unfavorably. What's more, he trails the two GOP challengers he has been matched against in public polls.

That leaves most political observers to conclude that Reid's only path to victory is to follow NJ Gov. Jon Corzine's (D) footsteps. Corzine, who was never able to move his numbers above the low-40s, sought to criticize his opponent in such a way that made the GOPer less electable than himself.

But Reid will differ in one respect: Corzine began his offensive against Gov.-elect Chris Christie (R) too late, and Christie won the election. Reid has already signaled he will begin his assault early enough to make a real difference. Some GOPers even believe Reid will get involved in their primary.

Sure, the 2010 Senate campaign in Nevada will likely include opposition research done by every candidate, like all other federal elections. But let's give Nevadans some credit: Reid's the most powerful Senator in the country, and certainly the most influential Senator (politician?) Nevada's ever had. And Nevadans know Reid's influence is to their state's benefit (see: killing the much-hated Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump).

Substituting Reid with a relative political novice who'd join the Senate in the lowest rank of the minority party might not seem too appealing come November of 2010, oppo or not.

I'm no expert on diplomatic protocol, but I'm pretty sure Obama just subjugated our entire nation to these adorable children.

Glenn Beck edition, via Media Matters:

Beck on health care: "We're the young girl saying 'no, no, help me,' and the government is Roman Polanski"

He's almost beyond parody.

Oh my:

The Republican National Committee's health insurance plan covers elective abortion - a procedure the party's own platform calls "a fundamental assault on innocent human life."

Federal Election Commission Records show the RNC purchases its insurance from Cigna. Two sales agents for the company said that the RNC's policy covers elective abortion.

Health insurance should, of course, cover such procedures.

But by the logic of the Stupak amendment, every individual and PAC donor to the RNC is funding abortions.

The reception to AMERICAblog's DNC boycott donation pause seems pretty positive.

Yet I've talked to a few Democrats who worry that the gay community's demands might be too lofty - i.e. the repeal of DOMA. But it's important to remember that a) all the things demanded by AMERICAblog's petition were pledged by candidate Obama before the election, and b) activism like this is not intended to cause massive political harm, but rather to provide a wake-up call to those in positions of power - to remind our leaders that the gay community intends to hold its representatives to their word.

And to the second point, we might be seeing an initial result:

Pressure works: Barney Frank now says DADT likely to come up next spring

Posted by John Aravosis (DC) at 11:25 AM

And don't for a minute think that Barney didn't say this to try to help the White House out of a tight spot because of the DNC boycott. He clearly did. Which means they're worried. And that's good. But it's not enough, and here's why.

Nowhere in the story does the White House say the same thing about a possible repeal coming next spring.

A few years back, Markos and Jerome's book "Crashing the Gates" taught us that activists needed to start taking ownership of their own political advocacy - in part because DC-based groups had become co-opted dinosaurs more interested in their own preservation than in actually advancing the causes of the constituencies they supposedly represented.

AMERICAblog's activism is crashing the gates.

Last night The Hill reported a secret agreement to secure Lieberman's cloture vote on health care reform. Today TPM has Reid's office denying it:

Reid spokesman Jim Manley told us: "There is no such understanding. We hope to have his vote in the end but we are not there yet."

A leadership aide also told us: "Senator Reid is speaking with Senator Lieberman and all members of his Caucus. To say that there is some 'understanding' about votes at the end of the process is preposterous."

I wouldn't put too much weight in the denial. Even if some secret agreement does exist, the caucus will deny it so Lieberman can enjoy his side of the deal: temporary (pretend) relevance.

Because if there really is an agreement and leadership confirmed it, reporters would stop flocking to Joe.

And then he'd be sad.

Besides providing a fresh articulation of pratically every form of spin I debunked yesterday, Chuck Todd's appearance on Morning Joe today provided us with this bomb, paraphrasing the White House's attitude towards Reid:

"You're the vote counter. But don't come crying to us when you need that last vote,"

Oh boy. My head hopes Todd was just trying to stir the pot, but my gut wonders...

Here's the full Todd clip (via TPM)

As predicted, there's a singular line of bogus spin coming from pundits post-announcement that manifests itself as of the following arguments:

• 'Reid isn't sure if he'll get 60 cloture votes for an opt-out plan (he's rolling the dice!); but even if he doesn't, he can just substitute a trigger plan and plausibly tell liberals that, well, he tried his best.'
  

• 'Today's announcement and last week's stories were just theater designed to mollify the liberal wing of the party - Reid doesn't really favor an opt-out plan.'
  

• 'The public option, like a lengthy Trey Anastasio guitar solo, is liked only by dirty hippies (bearded and otherwise).'

First, it should be obvious by now that the majority of Americans support a public option in health care reform. The constituency for a trigger plan is limited to Olympia Snowe and the hosts and guests of Morning Joe (both literally and figuratively).

Second, while people have said many bad things about Harry Reid, I'm pretty sure no one's ever accused him of being a legislative show horse. Or dramatic. He's just not going to announce a base bill that he doesn't reasonably expect will win 60 cloture votes. Can you imagine what a huge defeat that would look like? Reid can too.

Lastly, Reid definitively stated that a trigger bill wouldn't get a CBO score - effectively taking it off the table as a legislative option. If you see someone float a hypothetical Senate whip count for a trigger plan, ignore it - it's bogus.